Egypt inflation eases to 13.9% as monthly prices jump

Egypt inflation eased in September, with the annual urban rate slowing to 13.9% from 14.5% in August, even as prices rose 1.3% on the month, statistics agency CAPMAS said on 10 October.

It was the second consecutive monthly decline in the annual rate and the lowest reading since February, EnterpriseAM reported. The monthly increase was the fastest since May and compares with a 0.1% rise in August.

The annual slowdown largely reflects a base effect. Urban prices had risen 1.8% month on month in September 2025, a jump that has now dropped out of the yearly comparison, according to EnterpriseAM.

Food prices drive monthly rise in Egypt inflation

Food and beverage prices rose 2.8% on the month, ending three months of declines. Annual food inflation accelerated to 7.2% from 6.3% in August.

Vegetables were the main driver, with prices rising by roughly 15% in a single month, the data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) showed. Meat and poultry prices rose by more than 2%.

Housing costs moved in the opposite direction on an annual basis. Urban housing and utilities inflation fell to 35.2% from 42.8% in August, mainly because a sharp increase in September 2025 fell out of the calculation, EnterpriseAM reported.

Actual rents rose 0.9% on the month. Transport prices were 24.3% higher than a year earlier and education costs 18.7% higher, the publication said.

Central Bank of Egypt holds interest rates

The Central Bank of Egypt kept interest rates unchanged on 24 September, its fifth consecutive hold. The overnight deposit rate stands at 19%, the overnight lending rate at 20% and the main operation rate at 19.5%, Daily News Egypt reported.

The decision followed holds on 2 April, 21 May, 9 July and 20 August, according to the newspaper. The latest urban inflation reading leaves policy rates well above the annual rate of price growth.

At the September meeting the bank lowered its inflation outlook. It expects annual headline inflation to hold broadly steady in the third quarter of 2026 before declining gradually towards its target of 7%, plus or minus two percentage points, in the second half of 2027.

The Monetary Policy Committee said the balance of risks remains tilted to the upside. It cited renewed regional hostilities, the pass-through of fiscal consolidation measures, global food prices and elevated energy prices.

The committee said it would “not hesitate to use the tools at its disposal” to safeguard price stability, according to Daily News Egypt.

What the data mean for investors and the next rate decision

Analysts expect Egypt inflation to pick up again in the coming months. Heba Monir of HC Securities projects a 2.1% monthly rise in October, driven by an expected fuel price increase of about 10% as the government reduces subsidies, EnterpriseAM reported.

Deutsche Bank expects inflation to hover around 15–16% for the rest of the year, according to the same report. Base effects also turn less favourable, because monthly urban price rises were only 0.3% in November 2025 and 0.2% in December 2025.

The data follow two rating decisions. S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings both affirmed Egypt’s sovereign rating at B with a stable outlook, citing the flexible exchange rate, record reserves and multilateral support, EnterpriseAM reported.

Net international reserves reached $57.35 billion in September, according to Central Bank of Egypt data cited by the publication. The World Bank forecasts that Egypt’s economy will grow 5.1% in 2026, The National reported on 6 October, while it expects Gulf economies to contract.

The path of interest rates matters beyond Egypt’s borders. Gulf lenders including QNB Group and Emirates NBD operate banking units in the country, and borrowing costs shape returns on Egyptian pound debt held by foreign investors.

The Monetary Policy Committee next meets on 29 October. CAPMAS is due to publish October inflation figures almost two weeks later, EnterpriseAM reported.

The central bank’s final policy meeting of the year is scheduled for 17 December. Its decisions will depend on whether the September slowdown survives the expected fuel price increase and less favourable base effects.

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Meta title (53 characters): Egypt inflation eases to 13.9% as monthly prices jump

Meta description (146 characters): Egypt inflation slowed to 13.9% in September from 14.5% in August, but prices rose 1.3% on the month before the central bank’s 29 October meeting.

Focus keyword: Egypt inflation

Secondary keywords: Central Bank of Egypt; urban inflation; interest rates

Slug: egypt-inflation-eases-monthly-prices-rise

5 Tags: Egypt; Central Bank of Egypt; CAPMAS; Inflation; Interest Rates

Category: News; Economy

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Internal links used: https://outlookmiddleeast.com/qnb-group/ ; https://outlookmiddleeast.com/emirates-nbd/

Note: (1) Headline figures (13.9% annual urban, 14.5% in August, 1.3% monthly, 0.1% in August) match across Daily News Egypt, EnterpriseAM and Briefs. (2) Component figures conflict between sources: Daily News Egypt gives vegetables +15.1% and meat and poultry +2.5% (these appear to be nationwide figures), while EnterpriseAM gives fresh vegetables +14.7% and meat and poultry +2.2% (urban). The article therefore says “roughly 15%” and “more than 2%”. Daily News Egypt also reports bread and grains +0.4% against EnterpriseAM’s -0.3%; this was left out. (3) Daily News Egypt reports nationwide annual inflation of 12.8% (12.7% in August); this was left out because it could not be checked against CAPMAS directly. (4) Housing and utilities (35.2% from 42.8%), transport (24.3%) and education (18.7%) are urban figures from EnterpriseAM only; another outlet gives different nationwide figures. (5) September core inflation could not be confirmed and is not included. (6) The MPC quote is as rendered by Daily News Egypt; EnterpriseAM paraphrases the same passage differently — check against the CBE statement of 24 September. (7) The World Bank 5.1% growth forecast for Egypt is from The National and may refer to a fiscal year — verify. (8) The sentence that QNB Group and Emirates NBD operate banking units in Egypt is background knowledge, not from today’s sources — verify. (9) No named central bank official appears in the sources, so no leader tag was used. (10) The CAPMAS website could not be opened to read the original release; the external link points to the CAPMAS home page.

Sources (fact-check):

• https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2026/10/10/egypts-annual-urban-inflation-eases-to-13-9-in-september/
• https://enterpriseam.com/egypt/2026/10/11/urban-inflation-eased-to-13-9-in-september-even-as-monthly-prices-continue-to-pick-up/
• https://enterpriseam.com/egypt/2026/10/11/sp-affirmed-egypts-sovereign-credit-at-b-b-and-fitch-ratings-at-b-both-with-a-stable-outlook/
• https://www.briefs.co/news/egyptian-inflation-eases-to-13-9-in-september-the-lowest-sin/
• https://www.riotimesonline.com/egypt-urban-inflation-13-9-percent-september-2026/
• https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2026/10/06/world-bank-says-middle-east-economy-to-contract-21-in-2026-on-iran-war/