UAE GDP grows 0.4% in H1 2026 as non-oil sector expands

UAE GDP grew 0.4% to AED961.9 billion ($262 billion) in the first half of 2026, as non-oil expansion offset a second-quarter contraction, the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC) said on 9 October.

The UAE GDP figure measures real output at constant prices and compares with the first half of 2025. Non-oil GDP rose 1.8% over the six months, lifting its share of the economy to 79.2% from 78.1% a year earlier.

Oil activities accounted for the remaining 20.8% of real output, according to the FCSC’s published statement. The centre described all the figures as preliminary estimates.

Second-quarter contraction weighs on UAE GDP

The half-year total masks a weaker second quarter. Real GDP stood at AED476.9 billion (about $129.9 billion) in the three months to June, down 2.1% from the same quarter of 2025.

Non-oil activities contracted 1.1% in the quarter. The FCSC attributed the decline to regional developments and travel disruptions, which affected tourism, transport and trade.

The result marks a sharp change from the first quarter, when the UAE economy grew 3% to about AED485 billion, according to FCSC data published in August. Growth for the whole of 2025 was 6.2%, Gulf News reported, citing earlier official figures.

Financial services lead non-oil GDP growth

Financial and insurance activities were the fastest-growing part of the economy in the first half, expanding 14.8%. Information and communication followed at 7.3%, with health and social work at 6%.

Construction grew 5.1%, government activities 3.6% and real estate 2.3%, the centre said.

Trade remained the largest contributor to non-oil output, with a 16.2% share. Financial and insurance activities accounted for 15.2%, construction 13.1%, manufacturing 11.8% and real estate 7.9%.

Those five sectors together made up 64.2% of non-oil output. The financial sector is home to the country’s largest listed lenders, including First Abu Dhabi Bank and Emirates NBD.

The FCSC said the rising non-oil share reflects “the diversity of the country’s economic growth drivers”, Khaleej Times reported.

What the figures mean for investors and what comes next

The data give an official measure of how the UAE economy performed during months of regional conflict. They also arrive days after the World Bank cut its outlook for the Gulf.

The World Bank expects the UAE economy to contract 1.6% in 2026 before growing 8% in 2027, The National reported on 6 October. It forecasts a 4.3% contraction this year across the Gulf Cooperation Council as a whole.

The bank’s 2027 projections assume the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens from the end of this year, the newspaper said. A full-year contraction would imply a weaker second half than the first six months.

For investors, the sector breakdown points to a split within the non-oil economy. Tourism, transport and trade felt the second-quarter disruption, the FCSC said, while financial services and information and communication posted the fastest first-half growth.

The higher non-oil share is also relevant to the country’s diversification policy. Non-oil activities now generate almost four-fifths of real output, although the figures imply that oil-sector output fell, since overall growth of 0.4% was below the non-oil rate of 1.8%.

The first-half and second-quarter numbers may be revised. The FCSC said it is working with national statistical partners on the UAE Comprehensive GDP Revision Programme.

An updated national GDP time series will be published after the revision results are approved in the first quarter of 2027, the centre said. It gave no detail on the size or direction of any changes.

Third-quarter data will show whether the contraction recorded between April and June continued into the second half. Until then, the first-half UAE GDP release remains the main official benchmark for companies and investors assessing the effect of the conflict on demand, trade flows and travel.

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Meta title (55 characters): UAE GDP grows 0.4% in H1 2026 as non-oil sector expands

Meta description (145 characters): UAE GDP rose 0.4% to AED961.9bn in the first half of 2026 as non-oil growth of 1.8% offset a 2.1% second-quarter contraction, official data show.

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Internal links used: https://outlookmiddleeast.com/first-abu-dhabi-bank-fab/ ; https://outlookmiddleeast.com/emirates-nbd/

Note: (1) All FCSC figures are preliminary estimates and matched across WAM/Zawya, Gulf News, Khaleej Times and Arabian Post. (2) USD equivalents ($262bn, $129.9bn) are conversions at the AED3.6725 peg; the $262bn figure also appears in the WAM/Zawya headline. (3) The Q1 figure of about AED485bn and the 2025 growth rate of 6.2% come from Gulf News and Khaleej Times related-story headlines and an FCSC press release title, not from the 9 October statement — verify before publishing. (4) World Bank forecasts (UAE -1.6% in 2026, +8% in 2027; GCC -4.3%) are taken from The National’s 6 October report, not from the World Bank document itself. (5) The 64.2% combined share, the “weaker second half” remark and the statement that oil-sector output fell are our own arithmetic or inference from the published figures, not FCSC statements. (6) The FCSC statement names no officials, so no leader tag was used. (7) External link points to the FCSC press release listing page because the individual release has no stable direct URL.

Sources (fact-check):

• https://fcsc.gov.ae/press-release/
• https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/government-news/non-oil-activities-account-for-79.2-of-gdp-in-the-first-half-of-2026-1586609
• https://www.zawya.com/en/economy/uae-economy-reaches-262bln-in-h1-2026-1586647
• https://gulfnews.com/business/economy/uae-economy-reaches-dh9619-billion-in-first-half-of-2026-growing-04-1.500704442
• https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-economy-grows-04-to-dh9619-billion-in-h1-2026-as-non-oil-sectors-expand
• https://thearabianpost.com/uae-gdp-advances-0-4-despite-second-quarter-contraction/
• https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/2026/10/06/world-bank-says-middle-east-economy-to-contract-21-in-2026-on-iran-war/